Afghanistan is a remote and dangerous country. The Islamic religious movement, the Taliban, who now control 95% of that unhappy land do not welcome Westerners and the continuing civil war means that some parts are inaccessible to foreign observers. But there is now widespread agreement among Afghan watchers that something remarkable has happened there. Afghanistan, once the single largest producer of opium in the world, has effectively shut down opium growing and heroin production. Last year, the Afghan poppy fields produced some 3,200 tonnes of opium. This year, it is estimated, production will total less than 200 tonnes. Even more remarkably they have done this without any support from Western countries to replace their earnings from drug plant production.
   
It's not that great a sacrifice for the Taliban, according to UN experts. Their tax on the trade amounted to only about £18 million. What Afghanistan's new rulers really want is the lifting of sanctions against them and international recognition of their regime. Although there is little doubt that Western anti-drug officials had been quietly promising a £180 million aid package in return for stopping production. So the idea of a big wedge, plus the lifting of sanctions and recognition of the regime must have looked an attractive package to the Taliban. Unfortunately, no one signed any deal and the Taliban have been left whistling. Meanwhile Afghani farmers and the landless labourers who work in the fields are wondering where their next meal is coming from. After all, the only reason they got into the trade was that they had no other way of earning a living.

So why isn't the West supporting this effort? What's happened to the global war on drugs? The truth is, and we have seen this since the beginning of international efforts at drug control, that international drug control policy always takes a back seat to international foreign policy. In this case the West, in the shape of the USA, want the Taliban to expel Osman Bin Laden, a Saudi born millionaire and financier of terrorism. Then they can extradite him to the States, have a big show trial and then put him to sleep a la Timothy McVeigh. But the Taliban are not about to ditch their brother Muslim and supporter. And they still haven't forgiven the Yanks for lobbing cruise missiles at Bin Laden’s Afghan retreat two years ago.

Where does this leave the international heroin trade and what are the prospects for your bag of brown? Well, there are a number of potential scenarios here. According to some international cynics, the Taliban are at it. They've only stopped production to create artificially high prices. And already prices are up at the farm gate from £25 to £250 a kilo. One UK newspaper report states that the Taliban have stockpiles of opium of between 200 to 300 tonnes. Ready for release when the price goes up. Many international drug experts doubt this and point to the reasons we gave above for the Taliban ceasing production. They are more interested in getting international aid and recognition. And even with the Afghan ban, other countries, such as Colombia, Myanmar (Burma) and the former Soviet Republics of Central Asia, can be expected to increase production to make up the gap. That, however, will take a couple of years. So we could well see opium and heroin prices rising significantly. With the distinct possibility of high prices being paid for poor quality product. Are we going to see a 'panic in needle park' situation in the West? Who knows. As yet it is too early to tell what effect this will have. It might be that the Taliban get so pissed off with the West, it resumes production next year and meanwhile releases its strategic reserves. And, in the long term, even if this reduction in supply works, it will only be possible to reduce heroin use and addiction if the issue of demand by Western societies is reduced. And that looks impossible.
Sorry, Mr Blunkett.